Real-Time Drought Control of Storage Reservoir by Combining Middle and Long-Term Weather Forecast and Fuzzy Inference

Abstract

In this paper, we will propose the long-term and real-time reservoir operation systems considering the middle and long-term weather forecast provided by the Meteorological Agency. Firstly, after expressing the forecast weather conditions with some numerical values, the amounts of weekly and monthly precipitation are predicted. Secondly, formulating the drought control structures, the control rules of release and storage volume are formulated by using fuzzy inference theory. Then the fuzzy membership functions for storage volume are changed depending on the previous operational performance and the prediction accuracy through adaptive fuzzy inference. Finally the release from reservoir is decided through the fuzzy control theory to consider the uncertainty of prediction and operation.