Real‐time air traffic flow management: Expectations and probabilities of delay

Abstract

AbstractAir traffic flow management is carried out with a view to maintaining smooth aircraft traffic. Real‐time air traffic flow control is to carry out the air traffic flow control responsive to a real situation in real time by express use of the present situation of the desired terminal region and the radar information.With a view to such real‐time air traffic flow management, this paper derives equations for the holding delay time expectation value of aircraft requesting take‐off, the delay time expectation value within the terminal, holding generating probability, delay generating probability in the terminal, and the flight delay generating probability. If in the future any departure‐regulating procedure for reducing the flight delay time of the aircraft requesting take‐off is developed based on the values found from these equations, it becomes possible to carry out the air traffic flow management adaptively to a real situation.