Realizing Wardrop equilibria with real-time traffic information

Abstract

A Wardrop equilibrium for multiple routes from the same origin to the same destination requires equal travel time on each path used. With the advent of real-time traffic data regarding travel times on alternative routes, it becomes important to analyze how best to use the information provided to drivers. In particular, can a Wardrop equilibrium, which is a desired state, be realized? Simulations using a realistic traffic model (the three-phase model) on a two-route example are presented to answer this question. One route (the main line) is a two-lane highway with a stalled vehicle in the right lane and the other route is a low-speed bypass. For a critical incoming flow of vehicles, a phase transition between free flow and congested flow near the stalled vehicle is observed, making this a challenging example. In the first scenario, drivers choose routes selfishly on the basis of current travel times. The result is strong oscillations in travel time because of the inherent delay in the information provided. The second scenario involves a hypothetical control system that limits the number of vehicles on the main line to prevent the free-flow to congested-flow phase transition by diverting sufficient flow to the bypass. The resulting steady state is neither a Wardrop equilibrium nor a system optimum, but an intermediate state in which the main-line travel time is less than on the bypass but the average for all vehicles is close to a minimum. In a third scenario, anticipation is used as a driver-advice system to provide a fair indicator of which route to take. Prediction is based on real-time data comparing the number of vehicles on the main line at the time a vehicle leaves the origin to the actual travel time when it reaches the destination. Steady states that approximate Wardrop equilibria, or at least as close to them as can be expected, are obtained. This approach is also applied to an example with a low-speed boundary condition imposed at the destination in place of a stalled vehicle. The steady state flow approaches a Wardrop equilibrium because there is no abrupt change in travel time due to a phase transition.