Abstract

European temperate and boreal forests sequester up to 12% of Europe’s annual carbon emissions. Forest carbon density can be manipulated through management to maximize its climate mitigation potential, and fast-growing tree species may contribute the most to Climate Smart Forestry (CSF) compared to slow-growing hardwoods. This type of CSF takes into account not only forest resource potentials in sequestering carbon, but also the economic impact of regional forest products and discounts both variables over time. We used the process-based forest model 4 C to simulate European commercial forests’ growth conditions and coupled it with an optimization algorithm to simulate the implementation of CSF for 18 European countries encompassing 68.3 million ha of forest (42.4% of total EU-28 forest area). We found a European CSF policy that could sequester 7.3–11.1 billion tons of carbon, projected to be worth 103 to 141 billion euros in the 21st century. An efficient CSF policy would allocate carbon sequestration to European countries with a lower wood price, lower labor costs, high harvest costs, or a mixture thereof to increase its economic efficiency. This policy prioritized the allocation of mitigation efforts to northern, eastern and central European countries and favored fast growing conifers Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris to broadleaves Fagus sylvatica and Quercus species.

Highlights

  • European temperate and boreal forests sequester up to 12% of Europe’s annual carbon emissions

  • Our results indicated the highest costs occurring for Quercus species, especially when the preference for carbon sequestration is high (Policy E-G)

  • Moderate carbon sequestration opportunity costs were found for conifers with high carbon sequestration potentials, e.g. Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris with 76.98 to 81.39 EUR/present tons equivalent of carbon (PTE) and 50.77 to 96.52 EUR/PTE respectively

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Summary

Introduction

European temperate and boreal forests sequester up to 12% of Europe’s annual carbon emissions. Despite the availability of literature concerning adaptive management strategies[11,12] and economic evaluations of climate change impacts[13], a detailed species- and country-specific economic evaluation of forest mitigation policies that we consider to be “Climate Smart Forestry” at a large scale, i.e. the European level, is still missing[14] In this context, we defined the main objectives of this study as (i) Assessing the economic implications of realizing CSF in Europe regarding different forestry-relevant species, (ii) Identifying target areas for adopting efficient mitigation, and (iii) Analyzing sensitivity of CSF outcomes (supply-cost frontiers) to economic parameters (e.g. discount rate). Name Max NPV Balanced a Balanced b Balanced c Balanced d Balanced e Max carbon sequestration

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