Realistic representation of mixed-phase clouds increases projected climate warming

Abstract

Clouds are the main source of uncertainties when projecting climate change. Mixed-phase clouds that contain ice and supercooled-liquid particles are especially hard to constrain, and climate models neither agree on their phase nor their spatial extent. This is problematic, as models that underestimate contemporary supercooled-liquid in mixed-phase clouds will underestimate future warming. Furthermore, it has recently been shown that supercooled-liquid water in mixed-phase clouds is not homogeneously-mixed, neither vertically nor horizontally. However, while there have been attempts at observationally constraining mixed-phase clouds to constrain uncertainties in future warming, all studies only use the phase of the interior of mixed-phase clouds. Here we show, using novel satellite observations that distinguish between cloud-top and interior phase in mixed-phase clouds, that mixed-phase clouds are more liquid at the cloud top globally. We use these observations to constrain the cloud top phase in addition to the interior in a global climate model, leading to +1 °C more 21st century warming in NorESM2 SSP5-8.5 climate projections. We anticipate that the difference between cloud top and interior phase in mixed-phase clouds is an important new target metric for future climate model development, because similar mixed-phase clouds related biases in future warming are likely present in many climate models.