Abstract

Publisher Summary This chapter focuses on realistic models of probability. Probability is a mathematical notion. The urn model of probability is the expression of three postulates: (1) the constancy of a probability distribution, ensured by the solidity of the vessel, (2) the random character of the choice, ensured by the narrowness of the mouth, which is to prevent visibility of the contents or any consciously selective choice, and (3) the independence of successive choices, whenever the drawn balls are put back into the urn. In applied probability, especially in statistics, the bet model of probability may be expected to supersede the pure urn model. Another model that serves similarly like the urn model is the model of the complete strategist. Application of realistic probability models to complicated physical phenomena bring to the fore the necessity to use the concepts and techniques of stochastic processes.

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