Realist Theories and US Foreign Policy in the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

Realism is both a way of thinking about world politics and a research program within which a variety of theories may be developed. This chapter examines three realist theories that might help to explain the evolution of US foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific. Balance of power theory accounts well for US policy during the Cold War, although it has trouble explaining US initiatives driven more by ideology than by the balance of material capabilities. Hegemony theory explains US policy after the Cold War, particularly the effort to integrate China into a US-centered international order but cannot account for the Trump administration’s abandonment of US hegemony. As China’s relative capabilities have increased, power transition theory offers a plausible explanation for the more confrontational US approach, yet with unresolved puzzles over how US officials have implemented their new strategy. In each phase, as realists would expect, US economic policies have complemented and reinforced US security policies. A concluding section explores how further changes in the distribution of capabilities might affect future US policy in the Indo-Pacific.