Real-time turning rate estimation in urban networks using floating car data

Abstract

Real-time information about the dynamic variation of turning rates at intersections is essential for achieving a more efficient traffic control and management system. Limitations in obtaining measurements of turning movements have drawn attention to the need for alternative methods for estimation of turning rates. In a large-scale urban network, characteristics such as disparate signal plans and various intersection layouts make defining a generic model for the entire network challenging. For this reason, most of the proposed methods are impractical for real-field implementation. The application of existing optimization-based methods is also limited by computational complexity, the need for pre-defined assumptions and insufficient stationary traffic measurements (e.g. loop detectors and plate recognition cameras) in urban networks. In this study, we take advantage of probe vehicles to propose a hybrid method that noticeably reduces the need for stationary measurements in the network. This hybrid method consists of two core stages: signal processing, and physical data-driven modeling to consecutively estimate turning rates. In the signal processing phase, we use wavelet transformation to extract fundamental components of inferred floating car turning rates. These components are then used as inputs to a turning rate estimation model. Using these decomposed components of floating car turning rates instead of raw input helps to balance the effect of low and high-frequency signal components and leads to a more accurate estimation. Investigation of the proposed method in a microscopic simulation environment reveals the ability of the hybrid model to detect turning rate variations even when a severe incident occurs.