Real-time traffic condition uncertainty quantification using adaptive grey prediction interval model

Abstract

Uncertainty quantification is important for making reliable transportation decisions. For grey-based uncertainty quantification approaches, the data classification methods for most models cannot yield real-time upper and lower limited data sequence, limiting their application in dynamic transportation systems. Therefore, this paper proposes an adaptive grey prediction interval model to quantify real-time traffic condition uncertainty. To this end, polynomial regression is first used to fit the traffic flow trend function in real time, generating dynamically the upper and lower limited data sequence. Then, upper grey (UG) and lower grey (LG) models are built with parameters optimised using particle swarm optimisation. Finally, based on the real-time upper and lower bounds generated by the UG and LG models, prediction intervals are constructed. Using real-world traffic flow data, the proposed model was shown to be able to generate workable prediction intervals in real time. Future studies are recommended to advance traffic condition uncertainty quantification.