Real-time machine learning model to predict short-term mortality in critically ill patients: development and international validation

Abstract

BackgroundA real-time model for predicting short-term mortality in critically ill patients is needed to identify patients at imminent risk. However, the performance of the model needs to be validated in various clinical settings and ethnicities before its clinical application. In this study, we aim to develop an ensemble machine learning model using routinely measured clinical variables at a single academic institution in South Korea.MethodsWe developed an ensemble model using deep learning and light gradient boosting machine models. Internal validation was performed using the last two years of the internal cohort dataset, collected from a single academic hospital in South Korea between 2007 and 2021. External validation was performed using the full Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC), eICU-Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), and Amsterdam University Medical Center database (AmsterdamUMCdb) data. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was calculated and compared to that for the National Early Warning Score (NEWS).ResultsThe developed model (iMORS) demonstrated high predictive performance with an internal AUROC of 0.964 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.963–0.965) and external AUROCs of 0.890 (95% CI 0.889–0.891) for MIMIC, 0.886 (95% CI 0.885–0.887) for eICU-CRD, and 0.870 (95% CI 0.868–0.873) for AmsterdamUMCdb. The model outperformed the NEWS with higher AUROCs in the internal and external validation (0.866 for the internal, 0.746 for MIMIC, 0.798 for eICU-CRD, and 0.819 for AmsterdamUMCdb; p < 0.001).ConclusionsOur real-time machine learning model to predict short-term mortality in critically ill patients showed excellent performance in both internal and external validations. This model could be a useful decision-support tool in the intensive care units to assist clinicians.