Abstract
Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i) an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF) trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii) SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii) fluvial applications in Scotland.
Highlights
Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning
Following the Pitt Review, new joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed: the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) over England & Wales and the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS). Both joint centres issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) to the emergency response community based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood [2, 3]
Full details are provided in the FFC and SFFS guides to the FGS [2, 3@ 7KH 3OLNHOLKRRG FOassification of the Flood Risk Matrix (Figure 2) is defined using the following probability of occurrence bands: very low
Summary
Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. Following the Pitt Review, new joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed: the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) over England & Wales and the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS). Both joint centres issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) to the emergency response community based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood [2, 3]. $V * * JULGGHG RXWSXWV RI ULYHU IORZ RU VXUIDFH UXQRII DUH JHQHUDWHG URXWLQHO\ LQ HQVHPEOH IRUP WKH\ RIIHU WKH SRWHQWLDO WR EH LQWHUIDFHG ZLWK GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI UHFHSWRU LPSDFW GDWDVHWV WR JHQHUDWH UHDO WLPH IORRG LPSDFW DVVHVVPHQWV DW QDWLRQDO DQG UHJLRQDO VFDOH
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