Abstract
This paper concerns the problem of extending the lead-time of flood forecasts on small catchments when using a lumped rainfall-runoff model. It shows how a stochastic rainfall generator, based on renewal processes, has been linked to a rainfall-runoff model for the Mediterranean catchment of the Gardon d'Anduze (545 km 2). This linked system provides future scenarios conditioned by past observed rainfalls and includes a confidence interval calculation for the flood forecasts. It is reliable 4 h ahead, but could be useful for decisionmaking beyond this period. Although already operational, the proposed system could be improved if better rainfall forecasts were available.
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