Real time decision support system for portfolio management

Abstract

We describe our real time decision support system; a system that supports information gathering and managing of an investment portfolio. Our system uses the Object Oriented Bayesian Knowledge Base (OOBKB) design to create a decision model at the most suitable level of detail to guide the information gathering activities, and to produce investment recommendation within a reasonable time. To determine the suitable level of detail we define and use the notion of urgency, or the value of time. Using it, our system can trade off the quality of support the model provides versus the cost of using the model at a particular level of detail. The decision models our system uses are implemented as influence diagrams. Using a suitable influence diagram, our system computes the value of consulting the various information sources available oh the web, uses web agents to fetch the most valuable information, and evaluates the influence diagram producing the buy, sell and hold recommendations.