Real Option with Uncertain Expected Return

Abstract

We consider an irreversible investment in a project, which generates cash flow following a double exponential jump-diffusion process and its expected return is governed by a continuous-time two-state Markov chain. If the expected return is observable, we present explicit expressions for the pricing and timing of the option to invest. With partial information, i.e. if the expected return is unobservable, we provide an explicit project value and an integral-differential equation for the pricing and timing of the option. We show a method to measure the information value, i.e. the difference between the values of the option to invest under the two cases. We present numerical solutions by finite difference methods if jumps are absent. By numerical analysis, we find that: (i) The value of the option to invest increases with the belief on economic boom; (ii) If investors are more uncertain about the state of the economy, information is more valuable; (iii) The more likely the transition from boom to recession, the less the value of the option; (iv) The bigger the dispersion of the expected return, the higher the information value; (v) A higher cash flow volatility induces a less information value.