Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection; an oversimplification of a complex issue

Abstract

Some authors have claimed that the mortality rate estimations for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection are not representative of the actual death rate. As a matter of fact, the current mortality rate estimates (specially for calculations performed during the exponential phase of the virus spread) are an underestimation of the potential mortality of the symptomatic COVID-19 patients. Here we discuss some pitfalls of Baud and colleague’s innovative suggestion to re-estimate the COVID-19 mortality rate by dividing the number of deaths on a given time by the number of confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 patients at an earlier time (time from onset of symptom to death).