Abstract
This paper analyzes the factors influencing cash flows and divides them as certainty factors and uncertainty factors; it mainly discusses the uncertainty factors causing change of cash flow. For the characteristics of uncertainty of cash flows in real estate project, we adopted probability theory and mathematical statistics to balance and estimate the cash flows. Then the computer simulation method for uncertainty factors based on Beta distribution and normal distribution is proposed, with the prediction method of cash inflow and outflow. Illustrated by the case of actual real estate projects, we provided financial evaluation by traditional evaluation methods and simulation methods of uncertainty factors and compared the evaluation results. The experiment results show that the improved method has more scientific and accurate performance in basic data, compared to the traditional method, and it can acquire more reliable Evaluation results.
Highlights
Since real estate development has a high profit margin and rate of return, it is one of the highly paid industries
This paper studies the management of cash flow in cash flow estimation of real estate project and developing cash flow control in each stage
The uncertain factors of cash inflow and cash outflow influencing the real estate projects are, important factors which influence the accuracy of financial estimation in such projects
Summary
Since real estate development has a high profit margin and rate of return, it is one of the highly paid industries. The direct result of uncertainty is the deviation from the evaluation value to the practical value in economic effect of investment project It further causes more investment risks for investors and even makes decision mistakes [5, 6]. For minimizing the disadvantages of traditionally financial evaluation methods, computer simulation methods such as sample information of uncertain factors in Beta distribution, normal distribution, triangle distribution and uniform distribution are proposed. On this basis, this paper studies the prediction method of cash inflow and cash outflow in financial evaluation. Traditionally financial evaluation method and computer simulation method of uncertain factors are respectively applied to evaluate practical cases and perform comparative analysis of evaluation results
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