Real curve: Identifying and quantifying the real environmental effects on migration in China

Abstract

In the existing literature, it has been indicated that there is a negative link between air pollution and the settlement intentions of migrants. However, the underlying mechanism is still sleeps in the unopened black box. Based on China Migrants Dynamic Survey data, this paper applies a two-step conditional maximum likelihood method and quantile regression method to analyze the mechanism underlying environmental migration. The results confirm a nonlinear relationship between air quality and migrants’ settlement intentions. Different conditions of air quality differences between cities will lead to structural changes in the settlement intentions of migrants. Specifically, the real curve falls first decreases, increases and then decreases again. Under specific urban environment dimensions, the paper provides a new policy path for urban decision-makers on how to coordinate the human capital of migrants and sustainable urban development.