Reacting and responding to rare, uncertain and unprecedented events

Abstract

This work examines how we may be able to anticipate, respond to, and train for the occurrence of rare, uncertain, and unexpected events in human-machine systems operations. In particular, it uses a foundational matrix which describes the combinations of the state-of-the-world and the state-of-the-respondent, to formulate preferred response strategies, contingent upon what is knowable and actionable in each circumstance. It employs the dichotomy of System I and System II forms of cognitive response and augments these perspectives with a further form of decision-making, namely Systems III. The latter is predicated upon reactions to novel, unprecedented, and even ‘unthinkable’ events. The degree to which any human operator, the associated automation and/or the autonomy of a system, or each of these acting in concert, can best deal with these ‘blue swan’ events is explored. Potential forms of remediation, especially featuring training, are discussed, and evaluated in light of the skills needed to respond to even prohibitive degrees of situational uncertainty. Practitioners summary: Practitioners are liable to witness a growing spectrum of unusual and, on occasion, even unprecedented events in the operation of systems for which they are responsible. They will be required to account for their response to these circumstances to a spectrum of involved constituencies to whom they answer. This work aids them in succeeding to bring clarity to such difficult and challenging processes. Abbreviations: K: Known; Unk: Unknown; AI: Artificial Intelligence; ML: Machine Learning; CHARM: Cockpit Human-Automation Resource Management; SDT: signal detection theory; ASRS: Aviation Safety Reporting System.