Re-evaluating disease-free survival (DFS) as an endpoint versus overall survival (OS) in adjuvant colon cancer (CC) trials with chemotherapy +/- biologics: An updated surrogacy analysis based on 18,886 patients (pts) from the Accent database.

Abstract

3502 Background: DFS with 3 years median follow-up (3yDFS) was validated as a surrogate for OS with 5 years median follow-up (5yOS) in adjuvant chemotherapy CC trials prior. Recent data showed improved survival after recurrence and OS, over time, in pts who received adjuvant FOLFOX. Hence, re-evaluation of the association between DFS and OS, as well as the optimal follow-up of OS to aid its utility in future adjuvant trials is needed. Methods: Individual patient data from 8 randomized adjuvant studies conducted from 1998-2009 were included; 3 trials tested anti-VEGF or anti-EGFR agents. Trial-level surrogacy examining the correlation of treatment effect estimates (i.e. hazard ratios) of 3yDFS and 5y to 8yOS was evaluated using both linear regression (R2WLS) and Copula bivariate (R2Copula) models. For the R2, a value closer to 1 indicates a stronger correlation. Prespecified criteria for surrogacy required either R2WLS or R2Copula ≥ 0.80 and neither < 0.7, with lower-bound 95% Confidence Interval (CI) > 0.60. The rank correlation coefficient (ρ) quantified the individual-level surrogacy. Results: Total of 18,886 pts were analyzed, with median age 60, 54% male, 83% stage III, 59% > 12 nodes examined. Median follow-up for survival ranged from 5 to 10 years across trials. Trial level correlation between 3yDFS and OS remained strong (R2WLS ≥0.74; R2Copula ≥ 0.89) and increased as the median follow-up of OS extended longer (see table). Analyses limited to stage III pts and/or trials tested biologics showed consistent results. Conclusions: 3yDFS remains a validated surrogate endpoint for 5yOS in adjuvant trials in CC pts per prespecified criteria. The correlation was strengthened with more than 6 years of follow-up for OS. [Table: see text]