Re‐envisioning the purpose of early warning systems: Shifting the mindset from student identification to meaningful prediction and intervention

Abstract

Emphasis in school dropout literature has shifted from exploring wide‐ranging causes of dropping out to soliciting a smaller number of predictive indicators to identify students at increased risk for dropping out. However, much of the past decade's Early Warning research excludes indicators that do not add to the predictive nature of the model even if they might inform intervention. Considering this shift and the relative infancy of Early Warning research, this paper presents a critical systematic review of the literature surrounding dropout and Early Warning System(s) (EWS). Through a focus and evaluation of student‐level indicators, we present an argument of how an effective EWS can bridge the gap between the prediction of dropout events and underlying causes, while providing actionable information for schools to intervene. Finally, we present preliminary data that demonstrate the potential of elementary‐level student‐level indicators as an avenue for shifting the focus of EWS from student identification to meaningful prediction and intervention. The results show how the student‐level indicators explored in this paper can effectively identify students at these grade levels who are on‐ and off‐track to graduation. We discuss the implications of evidence warranting the position that dropping out of school can be predicted as early as the elementary grade levels and its potential to drive future research in this area.