Re-appraisal of the Bakken Shale play: Accounting for historic and future oil prices and applying fiscal rates of North Dakota, Montana and Saskatchewan

Abstract

The ascent of the Bakken shale play as a major U.S. oil producer became threatened by the 2014–2016 oil price fall. This benchmark study assesses and compares the economic performance of typical Bakken wells across three different fiscal regimes: North Dakota (ND) and Montana (MT) in the U.S., and the Canadian province of Saskatchewan (SK). Decline curve analysis and discounted cash flow analysis are applied to evaluate and re-appraise both the productivity and economic performance (internal rate of return, IRR) of typical Bakken wells in each region. For wells of similar estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), the fiscal regime of Montana (IRR 27%) is slightly more advantageous than North Dakota's (IRR 24%). If wells can be identified in SK akin to ND's reference well of 555 Mbbls EUR, the Canadian province provides the most attractive after tax return (180%). However, type curves for Bakken wells in SK and MT analyzed in our study typically have EURs at only 14% and 37% of the ND reference well (EUR∼555 Mbbls) and IRRs adjusted for EUR in MT and SK are negative in both regions at the historic reference price of $80/bbl. A sensitivity analysis using oil prices ranging between $20–100/bbl accounts for any of the price levels seen in the 2014–2016 price fall, and can be projected forward. The evaluation of single well economics and sensitivity to oil price changes and drilling and completion cost is subsequently expanded with a representative firm approach considering certain asset development options with multiple wells in each of the three Bakken jurisdictions (ND, MT, SK).