Abstract
This paper proposes some high-ordered integer-valued auto-regressive time series process of order p (INAR(p)) with Zero-Inflated and Poisson-mixtures innovation distributions, wherein the predictor functions in these mentioned distributions allow for covariate specification, in particular, time-dependent covariates. The proposed time series structures are tested suitable to model the SARs-CoV-2 series in Mauritius which demonstrates excess zeros and hence significant over-dispersion with non-stationary trend. In addition, the INAR models allow the assessment of possible causes of COVID-19 in Mauritius. The results illustrate that the event of Vaccination and COVID-19 Stringency index are the most influential factors that can reduce the locally acquired COVID-19 cases and ultimately, the associated death cases. Moreover, the INAR(7) with Zero-inflated Negative Binomial innovations provides the best fitting and reliable Root Mean Square Errors, based on some short term forecasts. Undeniably, these information will hugely be useful to Mauritian authorities for implementation of comprehensive policies.
Highlights
In early March 2021, Mauritius was struck by a second wave of the Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic among the local community after officially recording a long sequence of zero locally acquired active cases
It can be deduced that the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model (ZI-NB), given its lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), outperformed the other competing ZI-PT, ZI-WCG and Poisson mixture models (See the results of Poisson mixture models in the S1 Appendix)
This is because by observing the evolution of the series, it can be deduced that in October 2020 when there were an increase in international mobility [19] following opening of frontier and in March 2021 when the second wave has resurfaced, an exponential increase in the number of active COVID-19 cases was reported
Summary
In early March 2021, Mauritius was struck by a second wave of the Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic among the local community after officially recording a long sequence of zero locally acquired active cases. It is worth to mention that during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and especially after detecting the first set of local cases, on 18 March. The SARS-CoV-2 series in Mauritius and an extended integer-valued time series models
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