Abstract
The main point of the article is to argue the conclusions of Robert J. Shiller9s book, Irrational Exuberance, proposing that there are a number of phenomena of recent vintage, which may not have been adequately described. The author digs into his extensive personal experience with the private equity world in general and high technology investments in particular to analyze the impact of several developments, which he views as describing a structural change. He considers supply-side economics, initial public offerings, classical bear fallacies in the Internet world, the role of cheap communication and of traditional market mechanisms, to offer a simple conclusion. High technology investments does not necessarily follow conventional wisdom, and the higher rewards which they can provide are also associated with both higher risks and greater excitement. There may have been excesses in certain areas, but with change the only constant, a continued commitment to the field seems likely to be the right course of action.
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