Rational belief structures and rational belief equilibria

Abstract

The paper introduces some simplifying tools and methods for studying Rational Beliefs and for proving existence of Rational Belief Equilibria. We identify a set of stable non-stationary stochastic processes, named SIDS processes. Furthermore we introduce the concept of a Rational Belief Structure, which formulates the Rational Beliefs of the agents as beliefs about the distribution of exogenous variables and the beliefs of other agents. The use of the developed apparatus is demonstrated by showing existence of a set of Rational Belief Equilibria in an Overlapping Generations Model with money and one commodity.