Abstract

Evidence on the efficacy of breast screening from randomized controlled trials conducted in the last decades of the 1900s is reviewed. For decades, controversy about their results has centered on the magnitude of benefit in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction that can be achieved. However more recently, several expert bodies have estimated the benefits to be smaller than initially expected and concerns have been raised about screening consequences such as over-diagnosis and unnecessary treatment. Trials with substantial mortality reduction have been lauded and others with null effects have been critiqued. Critiques of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study are refuted. Extreme responses by screening advocates to the United States Preventive Services Task Force 2009 guidelines are described. The role vested interests play in determining health policy is clearly revealed in the response to the guidelines and should be more generally known. A general reluctance to explore unexpected results or to accept new paradigms is briefly discussed.

Highlights

  • The idea that early detection of breast cancer must be beneficial is totally compelling

  • Screening mammography was first evaluated in the New York Health Insurance Plan Study (HIP)

  • Mammography at that time did not match current standards, the HIP study‘s 15 year follow-up revealed an overall statistically significant reduction in breast cancer mortality of 23% but no benefit was seen from screening women age 40–49 [1]

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Summary

Introduction

The idea that early detection of breast cancer must be beneficial is totally compelling. Screening with mammography will achieve earlier detection of breast cancer. The assumptions are that earlier detection will alter the natural history of the disease, namely that death from breast cancer will be prevented and that there will be no major adverse effects from screening itself. Screening mammography is not the same as diagnostic mammography The former screens normal women for early-stage cancer and is directed at specific age groups. The early detection achievable with mammography is not early enough to alter the natural history of breast cancer in all women with breast cancer. Mammography trials reveal at best a 30% reduction in breast cancer mortality This means that for every 100 women destined to die of breast cancer if not screened, 70 will still die even if they are screened. Most important is that the majority of women who are diagnosed with breast cancer will not die of breast cancer

The Advantages of Randomized Controlled Trials
A Summary of the Screening Trials
What Explains the Lack of Consistency in Trial Results?
The Grounds for Skepticism
Randomization
Mammography
Distortion of CNBSS Results
Disseminating Nonsense
Attacking the United States Preventive Services Task Force
The Downsides of Mammography Screening
Over-Diagnosis
Excess Mastectomies
Mortality Paradox
Findings
Conclusions
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