Ratio of platelet count/spleen diameter predicted the presence of esophageal varices in patients with schistosomiasis liver cirrhosis.

Abstract

To examine the platelet count (PC)/spleen diameter (SD) ratio in predicting the presence of esophageal varices (EV) in patients with schistosomiasis liver cirrhosis. A total of 95 consecutive patients with EV induced by schistosomiasis liver cirrhosis were enrolled in this trial. A total of 141 schistosomiasis liver cirrhosis patients without EV were enrolled as controls. All patients were diagnosed by endoscopy. Demographic, laboratory, and Doppler ultrasound parameters were collected and analyzed. Binary logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify independent risk factors associated with EV occurrence. Receiver operating curves were generated to obtain the PC/SD ratio cutoff values for the optimal sensitivity and specificity with respect to EV. The accuracy was increased in diagnosing for EV using the ratio of PC/SD compared with the SD alone [area under the curve: 0.891 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.844-0.928 vs. 0.764 95% CI: 0.705-0.817; P<0.01]. The optimal cutoff value was 1004, with a 77.1% (95% CI: 67.9-84.8%) positive-predictive value and an 89.3% (95% CI: 82.7-94.0%) negative-predictive value. Using a cutoff of 1004, it was determined that 117/141 (83.0%) patients without EV could avoid undergoing unnecessary endoscopy, whereas 14/95 (14.7%) patients with EV would be misdiagnosed. In contrast, when the ratio was set at 909, the positive-predictive and negative-predictive values were 79.5% (95% CI: 69.5-87.4%) and 83.1% (95% CI: 76.1-88.8%), respectively. A ratio of 909 would accurately predict the absence of EV in 123/141 (87.2%) patients; however, 24/95 (25.3%) patients with EV would miss the necessary screening endoscopy. The ratio of PC/SD was a useful marker in predicting the presence of EV in patients with schistosomiasis liver cirrhosis.