Abstract
This paper presents a methodological approach for the assessment of the indicator 11.3.1: “Ratio of Land Consumption Rate to Population Growth Rate” proposed by the United Nations (UN), discussing the definitions and assumptions that support the indicator quantification, and analysing the results provided by different formulations applied to mainland Portugal, at the municipality level. Due to specific limitations related to the actual formula proposed by the UN (LCRPGR) for the computation of the indicator, an alternative formulation derived from Land Use Efficiency (LUE) was explored. Considering that the land to which the indicator refers may be described by specific classes represented in Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) maps, in the estimation of the land consumption rate we tested two LCLU datasets: Corine Land Cover and COS—the Portuguese LCLU reference map. For the estimation of the population growth rate, prior allocation of inhabitants to the areas where people are most likely to reside was deemed necessary, using a dasymetric mapping technique based on LCLU information. The results obtained for 2007–2011 and 2011–2015 showed, in most municipalities, an increase in the urban area and a decrease in urban population, leading to negative values both in LCRPGR and LUE in most of the territory. Clearly, LUE performed better than LCRPGR in what urban development monitoring and urban area dynamics trends are concerned. Furthermore, LUE was much easier to interpret.
Highlights
During the last decades, throughout the world, the expansion of urban land surpassed the growth of urban populations [1,2,3]
The indicator was estimated with the formula currently proposed by the United Nations (UN)-Habitat (LCRPGR) [1] and with an alternative formulation based on Land Use Efficiency (LUE) [13]
Portugal using two mathematical expressions: the formula currently proposed by the UN-Habitat [1] and a Land Use Efficiency (LUE) adapted formula proposed by Corbane et al in 2017 [13]
Summary
Throughout the world, the expansion of urban land surpassed the growth of urban populations [1,2,3]. The land take assessment produced by the European Environment Agency [4] for 2006–2012 reports that “based on the average for the EU-28, 52% of all areas that changed to artificial surfaces were arable land or permanent crops in 2006”. This means that several land cover types change to impervious cover, which in turn compromises the provision of important services provided by soils, namely the storage and filtering of water, and the transformation of nutrients and contaminants [4]—a direct call for the phenomenon to be monitored at proper spatial and temporal scales
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