Abstract
Rating the severity of losses of standard separation between aircraft in controlled airspace is a critical component in the measurement of aviation safety performance. The proposed model provides such a severity rating based on a collision probability estimate for an event that is replayed with limited position variability. The model incorporates: (1) normalized slant separation derived from percentage of required horizontal and vertical separation, (2) size of each aircraft involved, and (3) a probability density function fitted to the slant range to account for human controller and radar surveillance variability error and pilot-aircraft controllability. The form of such a model may be used to evaluate anticipated future changes in separation standards, aircraft equipage, flight procedures, etc.
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