Rating expectations can slow aversive reversal learning.

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The process of learning allows organisms to develop predictions about outcomes in the environment, and learning is sensitive to both simple associations and higher order knowledge. However, it is unknown whether consciously attending to expectations shapes the learning process itself. Here, we directly tested whether rating expectations shapes arousal during classical conditioning. Participants performed an aversive learning paradigm wherein one image (CS+) was paired with shock on 50% of trials, while a second image (CS−) was never paired with shock. Halfway through the task, contingencies reversed. One group of participants rated the probability of upcoming shock on each trial, while the other group made no online ratings. We measured skin conductance response (SCR) evoked in response to the CS and used traditional analyses as well as quantitative models of reinforcement learning to test whether rating expectations influenced arousal and aversive reversal learning. Participants who provided online expectancy ratings displayed slower learning based on a hybrid model of adaptive learning and reduced reversal of SCR relative to those who did not rate expectations. Mediation analysis revealed that the effect of associative learning on SCR could be fully explained through its effects on subjective expectancy within the group who provided ratings. This suggests that the act of rating expectations reduces the speed of learning, likely through changes in attention, and that expectations directly influence arousal. Our findings indicate that higher order expectancy judgments can alter associative learning.