Rate of penetration prediction while drilling vertical complex lithology using an ensemble learning model

Abstract

The rate of penetration (ROP) accounts for a substantial portion of the overall drilling cost. The drilling optimization process, which mostly involves the adjustment of the mechanical drilling parameters, is therefore of prime importance in ensuring efficient drilling. However, drilling formations with assorted types of lithology necessitate the involvement of more parameters to reduce uncertainty and enhance confidence when predicting the ROP. The objective of this paper is to introduce an ensemble model based on random forest (RF), in which artificial neural network (ANN), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are the base learner models, to predict the ROP across different lithological formations In this study, two types of actual field data of Well-1 were employed to build the model: (i) mechanical drilling parameters collected from real-time sensors allocated at the rig site, and (ii) petrophysical properties obtained from conventional well logs. Well-2 with more than 2300 unseen data points was used to compare the capability of the base learners (i.e., ANN and ANFIS), standalone RF, and RF-meta model in predicting the ROP with two of the earliest published ROP empirical models (Maurer's and Bingham's models). The results showed that the RF-meta model outperformed the base learners and Maurer's and Bingham's empirical models in predicting the ROP in Well-2 with a low absolute average percentage error (AAPE) of 7.8 % and a high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.94.