Abstract
This paper describes and simulates the way in which the growth rate and specialisation coevolve in an export-led growth model of Kaldorian type. The feedback from growth to exports is based on the causal chain ‘growth-profits-technology-income elasticity of exports’. The strength of this feedback differs among sectors, which are heterogeneous. Given the feedback from growth to the income elasticity of exports, growth and specialisation coevolve: sector specialisation determines aggregate growth, while aggregate growth modifies sector specialisation. An economic system converges towards a medium-period macro equilibrium where the rate of growth and sector specialisation are constant. After a certain period endogenous structural changes emerge, the system changes its growth regime and shifts towards another equilibrium. The result is strongly path and time dependent. JEL classification: F43, O31, O41
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