Rare Event Simulation by Combining Trend and Probability: An Application to Naval Ship Critical Failures

Abstract

Although the Rare event has a very wide application range, it has limitations in that it requires mathematical knowledge and the calculation process is complicated for the Bayesian approach, which was mainly used in previous studies. Therefore, rare events need to be easily analyzed. In this study, the critical failures of the ROK Naval ship were analyzed. Bayesian inference was not applied. The long-term trend (B-spline) and short-term probability (phase-type distribution) were fitted and combined. Phase-type distribution is a useful technique that can estimate the probability distribution of a desired shape with one parameter. This study is meaningful in that only an easy methodology was used, Phase-type distribution was applied to the analysis of rare events, and only a very small number of data were analyzed.