Rapid Tsunami Potential Assessment Using GNSS Ionospheric Disturbance: Implications from Three Megathrusts

Abstract

The current tsunami early warning systems always issue alarms once large undersea earthquakes are detected, inevitably resulting in false warnings since there are no deterministic scaling relations between earthquake size and tsunami potential. In this paper, we assess tsunami potential by analyzing co-seismic ionospheric disturbances (CIDs). We examined CIDs of three megathrusts (the 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel, and the recent 2021 Mw 8.2 Alaska events) as detected by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. We found that CIDs near the epicenter generated by the 2021 Mw 8.2 Alaska event were significantly weaker than those of the two Chilean events, despite having similar earthquake magnitudes. The propagation direction of CIDs from the Mw 8.2 Alaska earthquake further revealed ruptures toward the deeper seismogenic zone, implying less seafloor uplift and hazardous flooding. Our work sheds light on incorporating GNSS-based CIDs for more trustworthy tsunami warning systems.