Abstract

Natural-hazard triggered accidents at industrial facilities (natechs) are recognized as an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. Risk maps are helpful to identify natech hot spots. However, recent surveys showed that hardly any natech risk maps exist in the OECD and EU. A probabilistic natech risk mapping methodology for earthquakes was developed to fill this gap and was implemented as a web-based software tool: RAPID-N. The tool allows rapid natech risk assessment and mapping with minimum data input. It can calculate on-site natural hazard parameters and estimate site, process equipment, and substance properties. A basic set of damage states and fragility curves is provided for damage assessment. Custom damage states and fragility curves can also be defined for different process equipment. Conditional probabilistic relationships can be specified between damage states and possible natech event scenarios. The consequences of the natech events are assessed using the Risk Management Program methodology of US EPA and the results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps. The tool can be used for land-use and emergency planning.

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