Abstract
Ukraine is an important global exporter of grain, especially to several countries with vulnerable food systems. The war in Ukraine may disrupt global food supply by limiting the planting, growth, and harvest of crops, or disrupting grain supply logistics. We apply a novel statistical modelling approach to satellite images of cropland in Ukraine for fast inference and exploration of cropping patterns and their influences in challenging environments. We also present satellite-derived cargo shipping activity as an accompaniment to these outputs to better explore the outcomes. Cropland Gross Primary Productivity in 2022 was 0.25gC/m2 lower than the 2010-2021 baseline period (p < 0.001). Similarly, cumulative annual cargo shipping activity ports in the Odesa and Mariupol regions were 45% and 62% lower in 2022 than in 2021, respectively. This suggests that cropland primary productivity has suffered during the conflict, and reliance on a few key port areas introduces vulnerability to the value chain.
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