Abstract
Indoor spread of infectious diseases is well-studied as a common transmission route. For highly infectious diseases, like Sars-CoV-2, considering poorly or semi ventilated areas outdoors is increasingly important. This is important in communities with high proportions of infected people, highly infectious variants, or where spread is difficult to manage. This work develops a simulation framework based on probabilistic distributions of viral particles, decay, and infection. The methodology reduces the computational cost of generating rapid estimations of a wide variety of scenarios compared to other simulation methods with high computational cost and more fidelity. Outdoor predictions are provided in example applications for a gathering of five people with oscillating wind and a public speaking event. The results indicate that infection is sensitive to population density and outdoor transmission is plausible and likely locations of a virtual super-spreader are identified. Outdoor gatherings should consider precautions to reduce infection spread.
Highlights
The recent pandemic has spurred broader interest in particulate based transmission of diseases
Previous localized simulations have focused on particle methods using computationally intensive methods like discrete element models (DEM) or computational fluid dynamics (CFD), such studies include for a single indoor cough [14,15] and computational fluid-particle dynamics showing dispersion by bulk fluid transport plays a significant role [16]
An exemplar simulation is presented to demonstrate the performance of the base framework for particle generation and transport
Summary
The recent pandemic has spurred broader interest in particulate based transmission of diseases. A base model is developed for the generation and transport of infectious or hazardous particles in the environment This base model is incorporated into a genetic algorithm to search for likely source locations which aids in recreating transmission events. This framework provides an aid in further developing health guidelines as communities transition from avoiding social interactions to living with altered social interactions and in reverse engineering spreading events. More granular resolution simulations that provide parameter values are incorporated, such as the distribution of a cough [14], the size of emitted particles [20], or the half-life of viral particles [21,22] This model is applied in outdoor settings where public health has minimally evaluated far.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
