Rapid Economic Growth in India

Abstract

We explore till 2040 the role of technical change in agriculture, irrigation and concern for food security in rapid economic growth in India. India aspires to achieve double-digit growth. For a densely populated country of 1.2 billion people with growing incomes meeting its increasing and diversifying food needs will be a challenge. We explore this using a multi-sector, inter-temporal optimising model with 20 expenditure classes, 10 rural and 10 urban, each with its own linear expenditure system derived from an underlying non-linear demand system. We also assess the diversification of demand that is likely to occur and impact on poverty under different alternatives. At least a 4 per cent growth rate of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) is needed to support GDP growth rates in excess of 8 per cent for which a slightly optimistic agriculture TFPG growth rate of 2 per cent along with a slightly optimistic development of irrigation potential to 90 million hectare (Mha) (net) is needed. JEL Classification: C61, C67, O13, O21, O33