Rapid assessments of Pacific Ocean net coral reef carbonate budgets and net calcification following the 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event

Abstract

AbstractThe 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event caused widespread coral mortality; however, its impact on the capacity for coral reefs to maintain calcium carbonate structures has not been determined. Here, we quantified remotely sensed maximum heat stress during the 2014–2017 bleaching event, census‐based net carbonate budgets from benthic imagery and fish survey data, and net reef calcification from salinity normalized seawater total alkalinity anomalies collected from 2017–2019 for 56 Pacific coral reef sites (Mariana Islands, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, Pacific Remote Island Areas, and American Samoa). We incorporated the census‐based and chemistry‐based metrics to determine a calcification vulnerability index for each site to maintain calcium carbonate balance to provide accessible information to managers and policy makers. Most coral reef sites likely experienced ecologically severe (79%, n = 44) or significant (9%, n = 7) heat stress during the 2014–2017 coral bleaching event. Census‐based net carbonate budgets (mean ± 95% = 2.1 ± 0.6 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) were positive for 77% of sites (n = 43), neutral for 16% of sites (n = 9), and negative for 7% of sites (n = 4). Chemistry‐based relative net reef calcification (mean ± 95% = 22 ± 10 μmol kg−1) was positive for 84% of sites (n = 47), neutral for 11% of sites (n = 6), and negative for 5% of sites (n = 3). The calcification vulnerability index suggested the Pacific Ocean reef sites surveyed were of minimal (68%, n = 38) to moderate (32%, n = 18) concern for maintaining calcium carbonate balance following the bleaching event. This suggests that many reefs maintained positive calcium carbonate balance, but that a large number of reefs may be approaching a potential threshold for maintaining their calcium carbonate balance under the climate crisis.