Abstract
IntroductionMalaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies.Methods and FindingsA conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through “classification and regression trees”, an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density.ConclusionsIn Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.
Highlights
Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics
The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors
One fifth of the African population lives in malaria epidemic prone areas [9] where all age groups are at risk of clinical malaria due to the limited acquired immunity
Summary
Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. The spread of the vectors distribution in time and space exposes the human populations to a longer transmission season, resulting in a higher endemicity in the highlands [2,3]. The prevention of malaria in these vulnerable populations is one of the priorities for African leaders and international agencies [10]. It is essential to understand the factors fuelling these changes in transmission so that a national strategy plan for epidemic prevention and control can be developed in highland regions
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
