Rangewide determinants of population performance in Prunus lusitanica: Lessons for the contemporary conservation of a Tertiary relict tree

Abstract

Relict species are an extremely important part of biodiversity and as such studies on the factors that allow their current persistence are required. The aim of this study was to assess the determinants of the distribution and range-wide population performance of the Tertiary relict tree Prunus lusitanica L. This threatened species is confined to Iberia, Northern Morocco and Macaronesia with a fragmented and scattered distribution. Using ecological niche modelling, we calculated the level of range filling across the range and tested its relationship with human impact. We then assessed the relative importance of climatic suitability as obtained through niche modelling, topographic factors and contemporary human impact on range-wide population performance. Results showed that the species occupies only 2.4% of the overall area predicted to be climatically suitable for its presence and the level of range filling varied across regions. A weak negative relationship among range filling and human impact was found. Overall climatic suitability was the strongest predictor of population performance. However, it showed high variability across regions: the effect was positive in Iberia whereas negative but not significant in Macaronesia and Morocco. Human impact showed a significant negative effect and finally topographic factors such as altitude had a minor negative effect. Our results highlight that both climate and human impact play a major role in the current limited range filling and performance of the species. Management plans to minimize anthropogenic disturbances together with reforestation measures are urgently needed in order to conserve this unique species.