Abstract
Rangelands throughout sub-Saharan Africa are currently undergoing two major pressures: climate change (through altered rainfall and seasonality patterns) and habitat fragmentation (brought by land use change driven by land demand for agriculture and conservation). Here we explore these dimensions, investigating the impact of land use change decisions, by pastoralists in southern Kenya rangelands, on human well-being and animal densities using an agent-based model. The constructed agent-based model uses input biomass data simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) dynamic vegetation model and parameterized with data from literature. Scenarios of land use change under different rainfall years, land tenure types and levels of wildlife conservation support were simulated. Reflecting reality, our results show livestock grazing as the predominant land use that changes with precipitation and land tenure leading to varying livelihood strategies. For example, agriculture is the most common livelihood in wet years and conservation levels increase with increasing support of wildlife conservation initiatives. Our model demonstrates the complex and multiple interactions between pastoralists, land management and the environment. We highlight the importance of understanding the conditions driving the sustainability of semi-arid rangelands and the communities they support, and the role of external actors, such as wildlife conservation investors, in East Africa.
Highlights
Rangelands occupy 45% of the earth’s land surface and 61% of the African continent [1] with35% of African rangelands under permanent pasture [2]
The levels of irrigated agropastoralism land use under all the different scenarios was negligible while livestock grazing with conservation was not practiced when there were no conservation subsidies
In a normal rainfall year, the three land tenure scenarios are dominated by livestock grazing when there is no budget to support conservation initiatives
Summary
35% of African rangelands under permanent pasture [2]. They include grasslands, shrublands and savannahs used largely for livestock production and wildlife conservation that are often characterized by low productivity, sparse human population and common land use [2,3]. About 60% of global rangelands are relatively dry [1] with water scarcity common during certain months of the year [4,5], leaving any local human populations who are dependent on their ecosystem services at risk that is often mitigated by migration. Through land use change, is one of the strongest factors changing rangelands and is driven by the demand for ecosystem services [3,8]. Wildlife and livestock utilize rangelands in complimentary ways [13,14,15] where livestock grazing maintains the rangelands for wildlife by keeping them open and as hotspots of biodiversity [16,17]
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