Abstract
Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.
Highlights
Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is considered as one of the most problematic invasive species in Europe (e.g., [1])
Our results show that ecological niche modelling (ENM) yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data
The invasion of A. artemisiifolia into Europe proceeded in two stages: (1) A. artemisiifolia was inadvertently introduced into Europe in the 19th century and has become a widespread alien species in South-eastern Europe [4]. (2) In the last decade many expanding populations of A. artemisiifolia in Central and Northern Europe have been evidenced [5]
Summary
Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (common ragweed), native to North America, is considered as one of the most problematic invasive species in Europe (e.g., [1]). Up to 12% of the human population suffers from allergy (rhinitis and asthma) to Ambrosia pollen [3]. The medical costs of people with allergies are enormous (e.g., [3]) and will increase in case of a further spread of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. When considering A. artemisiifolia, the main problem is the health risk for human population. In case of A. artemisiifolia, it is controversially discussed whether this northward spread is mainly caused by climate change or due to an increased import of contaminated seeds and birdseeds [2]. The elongation of the growing season under climate change may especially promote late flourishing annuals and advantage a potential range
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