Abstract
Overturning a generation of research, Cinnirella et al. Demography, 54, 413–436 (2017) found strong parity-dependent fertility control in pre-Industrial England 1540–1850. We show that their result is an unfortunate artifact of their statistical method, relying on mother fixed effects, which contradicts basic biological possibilities for fecundity. These impossible parity effects also appear with simulated fertility data that by design have no parity control. We conclude that estimating parity control using mother fixed effects is in no way feasible. We also show, using the Cambridge Group data that Cinnirella et al. used, that there is no sign of parity-dependent fertility control in English marriages before 1850.
Highlights
Historical demography has failed to find substantial evidence for parity-dependent birth control before the demographic transition
If we apply to these data CKW’s estimate of parity effects and take those marrying at ages 24–26 as the reference group, implied birth rates for those marrying at ages 15–17 are onethird of the level observed
We found no evidence of gender-related parity control
Summary
Historical demography has failed to find substantial evidence for parity-dependent birth control before the demographic transition. If we apply to these data CKW’s estimate of parity effects and take those marrying at ages 24–26 as the reference group, implied birth rates for those marrying at ages 15–17 are onethird of the level observed.
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