Abstract
Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the beginning of December 2019, there have been more than 28.69 million cumulative confirmed cases worldwide as of 12th September 2020, affecting over 200 countries and regions with more than 920,463 deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic has been sweeping worldwide with unexpected rapidity. In this paper, a hybrid modelling strategy based on tessellation structure- (TS-) configured SEIR model is adopted to estimate the scale of the pandemic spread. Building on the data pertaining to the global pandemic transmission over the last six months around the world, key impact factors in the transmission and control procedure have been analysed, including isolation rate, number of the infected cases before taking prevention measures, degree of contact scope, and medical level, so as to capture the fundamental factor influencing the pandemic. The quantitative evaluation allowed us to illustrate the magnitude of risks of pandemic and to recommend appropriate national health policy of prevention measures for effectively controlling both intra- and interregional pandemic spread. Our modelling results clearly indicate that the early-stage preventive measures are the most effective action to be taken to contain the pandemic spread of the highly contagious nature of the COVID-19.
Highlights
Since the outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the beginning of December 2019, over 29.96 million people are infected with the disease, with 920,463 death cases around the world as of 12th September 2020. ere are 87 countries whose confirmed cases exceed 10,000, affecting over 200 countries in the world at amazing width and rapidity against expectation. e risk level of COVID-19 pandemic was raised to “very high” on 28th February 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO) since the global community is being rampaged by the disease [1]. e current distribution of COVID-19 pandemic cases around the world is shown in Figure 1 [2]
In order to bridge this knowledge gap, an improved SEIR model embedded with tessellation structures (TSs) is developed to estimate the transmission tendency of the COVID-19 considering the key parameters in the procedure under different scenarios
Based on the pandemic situation dealt in China and other early outbreak countries, the results presented in the paper clearly indicate that proactive prevention measures and effective medical resources providence are the most important actions to be adopted under high risk of COVID19, especially in religious gathering areas and densely inhabited districts
Summary
Since the outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the beginning of December 2019, over 29.96 million people are infected with the disease, with 920,463 death cases around the world as of 12th September 2020. ere are 87 countries whose confirmed cases exceed 10,000, affecting over 200 countries in the world at amazing width and rapidity against expectation. e risk level of COVID-19 pandemic was raised to “very high” on 28th February 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO) since the global community is being rampaged by the disease [1]. e current distribution of COVID-19 pandemic cases around the world is shown in Figure 1 [2]. In order to bridge this knowledge gap, an improved SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model embedded with tessellation structures (TSs) is developed to estimate the transmission tendency of the COVID-19 considering the key parameters in the procedure under different scenarios It allows the random behaviour of interpersonal contact to be considered as probabilistic network parametric impact along with other factors, including isolation rate, contact number during gathering at regularity, and the size of the initial infected cases, from which the effective containment strategies, i.e., contact tracing or isolation measures, can be discussed and recommended . Based on the pandemic situation dealt in China and other early outbreak countries, the results presented in the paper clearly indicate that proactive prevention measures and effective medical resources providence are the most important actions to be adopted under high risk of COVID19, especially in religious gathering areas and densely inhabited districts.
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