Random field modeling with insufficient field data for probability analysis and design

Abstract

Often engineered systems entail randomness as a function of spatial (or temporal) variables. The random field can be found in the form of geometry, material property, and/or loading in engineering products and processes. In some applications, consideration of the random field is a key to accurately predict variability in system performances. However, existing methods for random field modeling are limited for practical use because they require sufficient field data. This paper thus proposes a new random field modeling method using a Bayesian Copula that facilitates the random field modeling with insufficient field data and applies this method for engineering probability analysis and robust design optimization. The proposed method is composed of three key ideas: (i) determining the marginal distribution of random field realizations at each measurement location, (ii) determining optimal Copulas to model statistical dependence of the field realizations at different measurement locations, and (iii) modeling a joint probability density function of the random field. A mathematical problem was first employed for the purpose of demonstrating the accuracy of the random field modeling with insufficient field data. The second case study deals with the assembly process of a two-door refrigerator that challenges predicting the door assembly tolerance and minimizing the tolerance by designing the random field and parameter variables in the assembly process with insufficient random field data. It is concluded that the proposed random field modeling can be used to successfully conduct the probability analysis and robust design optimization with insufficient random field data.