Ramp Analysis of the Portuguese Net Load under Different Decarbonization Scenario

Abstract

European energy strategy towards decarbonization, and its practical implementations in the different EU countries, will imply a continuous increase of variable (non-dispatchable) renewable energy (VRE), like wind and solar PV generation. This increasing VRE along with the progressive closing of current greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting plants, will decrease the net demand (inflexible demand minus non-dispatchable generation), reducing the amount of dispatchable generation needed to face both low VRE periods and larger net demand ramps. These problems need to be assessed to anticipate possible mismatches between net demand values and ramps, and the available resources with generation and ramping capabilities, so that the security and quality of supply is guaranteed. In case of expected risk, regulatory mechanisms, such as new market clearing rules or incentives to new flexibility sources or to new generation and storage technologies, could be required. This paper looks at the possible evolution of the Portuguese power system focusing on the net demand ramp problem. The historical and expected evolution of the hourly ramps of the net demand are analyzed considering different scenarios of high wind and solar PV penetration, according to different degrees of convergence to the EU energy strategic objectives.