Raising the intelligence stakes: Corporate information warfare and strategic surprise

Abstract

In war as in business, surprise can be a powerful strategic weapon. This article draws parallels between military and business planning, and explores the role of strategic intelligence in achieving and preempting surprise in the commercial marketplace. Sherman Kent (1949) defined strategic intelligence as the “kind of knowledge a state must possess regarding other states in order to assure itself that its causes will not suffer nor its undertakings fail because its statesmen and soldiers plan and act in ignorance.” With one or two word changes (business/organization for state; executives/managers for statesmen/soldiers), this definition could apply equally well to the world of business. In highly competitive global markets, ignorance of other players' actions or of developments in the wider business environment can prove costly. The chances of achieving, and/or being subjected to, strategic surprise have increased correlatively with the growth of networked, multinational organizations and electronic commerce. In an age of information warfare, strategic surprise has become virtually synonymous with technological surprise, thereby putting a premium on high-grade intelligence and threat assessment. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.