Abstract
Abstract. Seven decades of extractions have dramatically reduced Jordan River flows, lowered the Dead Sea level, opened sink holes, and caused other environmental problems. The fix Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinians propose would build an expensive multipurpose conveyance project from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinate water. This paper compares the Red-Dead project to alternatives that may also raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the Jordan-Israel-Palestinian inter-tied water systems show two restoration alternatives are more economically viable than the proposed Red-Dead project. Many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country can together increase economic benefits and reliably deliver up to 900 MCM yr−1 to the Dead Sea. Similarly, a smaller Red-Dead project that only generates hydropower can deliver large flows to the Dead Sea when the sale price of generated electricity is sufficiently high. However, for all restoration options, net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as flows to the Dead Sea increase. This finding suggests (i) each country has no individual incentive to return water to the Dead Sea, and (ii) outside institutions that seek to raise the Dead must also offer countries direct incentives to deliver water to the Sea besides building the countries new infrastructure.
Highlights
The Jordan River basin states have long faced water scarcity with plans, proposed allocations, diversions, reservoirs, and treaties to address scarcity dating back a century and longer (Beaumont, 1997; Lowi, 1993; Wolf, 1995)
Economic demands such as urban, industrial, and agricultural uses are located at nodes and described by demand functions that express the value or benefits derived from the water volume delivered
Imports, exports, and reused wastewater are the only active terms in the return flow accounting. The former two terms are included by specifying conveyance links for return flows among districts and nodes; in this case, the districts near or that can deliver return flows to the Jordan Valley and Dead Sea. The latter term is defined by only allowing the agriculture sector to contribute wastewater and specifying a non-consumptive fraction of the original use that becomes available as the return flow
Summary
I (i) identify hydrologic and economic impacts of the Red-Dead project and alternatives, (ii) quantify impacts among countries and as a function of the flow delivered to the Dead Sea, and (iii) suggest governance for viable approaches To do this I extend the hydro-economic Water Allocation System (WAS) model for Israel, Palestine, and Jordan (Fisher et al, 2005; Rosenberg et al, 2008) to include and allow return flows from agriculture, brine waste from desalination, multiple water quality types to meet a minimum in-stream flow requirement, and fixed-increment infrastructure capacity expansions.
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