Raising genetic yield potential in high productive countries: Designing wheat ideotypes under climate change

Nimai Senapati,Hamish E Brown,Mikhail A Semenov

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.02.025

Nimai Senapati, Hamish E Brown + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.02.025

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Abstract

Designing crop ideotype is an important step to raise genetic yield potential in a target environment. In the present study, we designed wheat ideotypes based on the state-of-the-art knowledge in crop physiology to increase genetic yield potential for the 2050-climate, as projected by the HadGEM2 global climate model for the RCP8.5 emission scenario, in two high-wheat-productive countries, viz. the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). Wheat ideotypes were optimized to maximize yield potential for both water-limited (IW2050) and potential (IP2050) conditions by using Sirius model and exploring the full range of cultivar parameters. On average, a 43–51% greater yield potential over the present winter wheat cv. Claire was achieved for IW2050 in the UK and NZ, whereas a 51–62% increase was obtained for IP2050. Yield benefits due to the potential condition over water-limitation were small in the UK, but 13% in NZ. The yield potentials of wheat were 16% (2.6 t ha−1) and 31% (5 t ha−1) greater in NZ than in the UK under 2050-climate in water-limited and potential conditions respectively. Modelling predicts the possibility of substantial increase in genetic yield potential of winter wheat under climate change in high productive countries. Wheat ideotypes optimized for future climate could provide plant scientists and breeders with a road map for selection of the target traits and their optimal combinations for wheat improvement and genetic adaptation to raise the yield potential.

Highlights

To ensure food security for the world’s growing population, food production will need to increase by around 70% by 2050 (FAO, 2009, 2014)
High winter wheat yield in the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ) could be linked to low air temperature (9–15 °C) and sufficient precipitation (596–1296 mm yr-1), with very few or almost no extreme climatic events and abiotic stresses, which ensure slow growth and longer crop maturity (237–317 days)
The highest wheat productive countries are generally lie at high latitudes, for examples, Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, including NZ and the UK (FAOSTAT, 2018; Hawkesford et al, 2013)

Summary

Introduction

To ensure food security for the world’s growing population, food production will need to increase by around 70% by 2050 (FAO, 2009, 2014). Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is one of the key staple crops in global food security, providing about 20% of total dietary calories and protein needs, with about 730 million tonnes of annual production from a harvested area of around 2.1 million km globally (FAO, 2016; Shiferaw et al, 2013). With the limited scope for extending present crop-growing areas, a considerable increase in crop productivity is required to guarantee future food security in the face of ongoing climate change (Reynolds et al, 2011). Increasing the upper limit of genetic yield potential is one of the key components of an integrated approach to improve crop productivity, besides optimization of agronomic management and sustainable intensification (Godfray et al, 2010, Reynolds et al, 2011, 2009)

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