Rainstorm Simulation in Macao with WRF

Abstract

Numerical Weather Prediction plays a very important role in weather forecasting. Different models have been running in different weather forecasting centers. The Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) has been using MM5 for daily weather forecast since 1999. As further development on MM5 is ceased, another forecasting model is sought for replacement. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) developed by the collaboration of many research and government organizations in the US is considered. It was setup in this study for testing its applicability in Macao, especially on simulating of some severe weather conditions. Rainstorm is one severe condition that influences Macao during the summer season from April to August. Using the recent case occurred on May 20 of 2007, the WRF was examined for its performance with respect to its application locally in Macao. Using remote sensing images from the Fengyun‐2C satellite, rain rate radar images from the Hong Kong Observatory, and precipitation record collected at the Taipa Grande Station in Macao, pattern analysis and station precipitation comparison were carried out qualitatively and quantitatively. It was found that the simulation results from WRF were consistent with the concurrent satellite images and precipitation record.